Comparison of Election Predictions and Candidate Choice on Political Polls

Malcolm S. McLeod Jr, Laura T. Flannely and Kevin J. Flannelly

Previous research has demonstrated the value of using 0-10 probability scales to predict election results.
  

Comparison of Election Predictions, Voter Certainty and Candidate Choice on Political Polls

Kevin J. Flannelly Marketing Research Institute, HonoluluLaura T. Flannelly University of Hawaii, Honolulu and Malcolm S. McLeod, Jr Center for Psychosocial Research, Honolulu

INTRODUCTION

Hoek & Gendall (1993) proposed a new method to predict voting behaviour by asking people to rate their probability of voting for different parties in an election, rather than asking them to choose the party for whom they would vote. Having used a similar scaling method for predicting people's behaviour in other contexts, we decided...

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