Will I Hit My Year-End Numbers? A Brand-Performance Forecasting Model: The Case for Benchmarking Sales and Advertising Spending

This study investigated the sales and advertising "build" curves for 15 consumer packaged-goods (CPG) categories, for both new products and established brands.

Will I Hit My Year-End Numbers? A Brand-Performance Forecasting Model: The Case for Benchmarking Sales and Advertising Spending

Robert T. Carter

University of Louisville

Management slant

  • Established CPG brands exhibit a constant sales build across a wide range of categories, regularly achieving 26 percent, 52 percent, and 76 percent of their year-end sales after 13 weeks, 26 weeks, and 39 weeks, respectively. Importantly, advertising spending does not affect these sales builds.
  • New CPG products also exhibit fairly consistent sales builds recording 14 percent, 43 percent, and 73 percent of their year-end sales after 13 weeks, 26 weeks,...

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