Graeme Trayner began his career as an intern for Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and is now a Vice President of the company, running their New York office and international corporate practice. In between, he has worked for a number of other companies, including a stint as a Partner in the London office of Brunswick Group where he set up its global opinion research practice. He also worked closely with consumer research pioneer Wendy Gordon and British Labour Party pollsters Philip Gould and Deborah Mattinson. Graeme writes and speaks frequently on the convergence of business and politics, and social psychology and corporate reputation. His paper on rethinking reputation research was Highly Commended at the 2012 MRS Annual Conference and in 2014 he won the Best Conference Chair Award. He is a past AQR Board Member and a certified member of MRS.
I wish someone had told me at the beginning of my career that it's a marathon, not a sprint. Looking back, I was in too much of a rush, and you need time and experience to turn into a fully rounded advisor. Also, to make sure you don't burn the candle at both ends – it's not good for anyone!
In this post by Adam Smith, Futures Director at GroupM, he
predicts stately, rather than sensational, progress as the UK economy is
recovers and investment still has lost ground to make up.
Media growth for 2013 emerged 8% up, slightly ahead of our forecast which already had plenty of topspin. We know how this happened – another big digital year, and print having a slightly less lurid one – but why is harder to put a finger on.
The Guardian's Aditya Chakrabortty put it well: 'The country is richer, but its people are poorer. This now counts as a recovery.' Real Q2 GDP is likely to exceed its Q2 2008 all-time peak, but per capita it is still 7% below: in terms of spending power, the typical household is stuck in 2005.
Last month we published Top 10 Brands datasets from Kantar Media's global TGI panels on warc.com. The TGI data provide a look at the most-consumed brands in 61 markets across four regions (Europe, the Americas, Asia Pacific and MEA), dating back to 2011. The datasets also show the number of consumers of each brand, and how that total relates to the population. With this, we're able to gain some interesting insight.
Coca-Cola is the most consumed brand, appearing in the top 10 in no less than 34 of our markets (57.6%) across all four regions. The soft drink giant had 70.7m consumers in China alone (48% of the population). However, this placed it only 8th in the country's rankings, where Danone was top with 109 million users. Coca-Cola was the favourite brand in four markets in 2013, including Hong Kong, where it was consumed by 77% of the population (3.9 million users), and Mexico, used by 72% (or 25.8 million).
The latest Landmark Paper is drawn from the two special issues of JMRS, celebrating the 50th anniversary of the MRS. It was originally published in the Proceedings of MRS Conference 1985, and presented at that event by the authors.
The theme of the paper addresses what should surely be a fundamental concern to all readers of IJMR: 'how well market research data mirror the realities which they are intended to measure'.
Warc subscribers can view the paper here: How do you like your data: raw, al dente or stewed?
The authors also discuss the options open to researchers when the data apparently fails to meet that objective. As the authors point out, tests of external validity can be difficult to apply to many categories of research, but in areas where market research sourced data is the key source for decision making, such as when allocating multi-million pounds of advertising spend, clients rightly demand re-assurance that the results are accurate.
Data released in Warc's International Ad Forecast (IAF) last month show that TV, as a medium for advertising expenditure, is in robust health. What is more, expenditure will rise over the forecast period: we expect TV adspend in our 12 key markets to grow 4.6% on a PPP basis this year to total PPP159bn. A further 2.8% rise is forecast for 2015.
PPPs are a good gauge for comparing different markets as they show the rate at which the currency of one country would have to be converted into that of another country to buy the same amount of goods and services in each. A common example is the price of a hamburger: in London, it may cost £2, while in New York the same hamburger may be $4. This would imply a PPP exchange rate of 1 pound to 2 US dollars. Consequently, market exchange rates are taken out of the equation, and a clearer comparison can be made.
In Q1 2014, out of home advertising expenditure dipped 2.2% compared with the same period a year ago, according to the latest data released in the Advertising Association/Warc Expenditure Report. But this is expected to be just a temporary blip, and we forecast consistent growth throughout the rest of the year and into 2015.
We predict annual growth in the out of home sector of 2.7% in 2014, reaching a total of £1,017m. This is the first time the sector will have surpassed the £1bn mark. The pace of annual growth is expected to accelerate to 5.9% in 2015, or £1,077m.
After recording a dip in advertising spend in 2013, radio has started the year positively, according to the latest data from the Advertising Association/Warc Expenditure Report.
Traditional radio adspend (excluding branded content) totalled £426m in 2013, marking a 2.9% fall year-on-year and some £120m less than its peak nine years ago. In real terms (after accounting for inflation) the 2013 total was £337m, and representative of a 5.3% annual decline at 2005 prices.
But this looks set to change in 2014. Data show that radio adspend has started this year strongly, rising by 5.7% in Q1 compared with last year to £113m. This rate of growth is greater than the all-media total of 5% for Q1, suggesting things are looking up for the sector.
Clients often come to us saying their innovation is not having the impact they want: they need more ideas, or fewer bigger ideas, or they need to get them out in to the marketplace much more quickly. When we dig in to their Innovation Value Chain1 we frequently diagnose that the obstacle is not where they first thought.
Total UK advertising expenditure rose 5.0% year-on-year in Q1 2014, according to the latest data from the Advertising Association/Warc Expenditure Report released last week. We're predicting growth of 6.0% for the year as a whole and a further increase of 6.7% in 2015.
These are the headline figures – but what do they mean for the industry? There is often confusion when it comes to interpreting UK adspend data, because the AA/Warc is just one of the many organisations that release data in this field, and often the figures and forecasts seem very different to those from other sources. One of the main queries I receive at Warc tends to be "Why are your data so different to the numbers I've just seen from insert source organisation here?"
Last week Warc published the June results of its Global Marketing Index, one of the main ways we track current marketing activity in order to benchmark the health of the industry.
For those of you not familiar with this report, let me provide a bit of background. Back in October 2011, in partnership with World Economics, Warc launched the Global Marketing Index (GMI). Our aim was to provide a unique monthly indicator of the state of the global marketing industry by tracking current conditions among marketers all around the world. The data would also provide useful information for the financial markets relating to the state of global economic activity. Advertising expenditure has traditionally had a clear relationship with GDP, as you can see in the chart below.