Last week we released our International Ad Forecast for December, outlining expectations for advertising expenditure in 12 key markets across 2014 and 2015. We anticipate growth in global adspend of 4.8% in 2015, a downgrade of 0.5pp since our last forecast in June. This follows expected growth of 5.5% in 2014, which is on a par with our previous outlook.
There are a number of reasons for the revision to next year's growth expectations, but chief among them are a variety of risks to the economic growth within our key markets, including stagnation in the eurozone, an economic slowdown in parts of Asia, and continued tensions surrounding Ukraine.
The 2015 outlook for all our key markets – with the exception of India and the UK – has been downgraded from June. However, all 12 markets are predicted to record an increase in overall advertising expenditure next year at current prices, although in real terms – after factoring in inflation – only half of these will demonstrate growth.
This post is by Andy Mitchell, European MD at Brightroll.
According to the IAB UK's recently released Digital Ad Spend Report – done in conjunction with PwC – mobile video advertising has grown 196% over the past two years to £63.9m. This makes it the fastest growing digital ad format, accounting for £1 in every £5 spent on Internet and mobile display ads. As automated buying also grows to keep pace with the explosion of ads on the format, there are two key benefits that mobile programmatic can bring for brands.
The pace of change in consumer behaviour does not wait for the advertising community to catch up with it. As brands' target audiences move en masse towards mobile devices, every advertiser's programmatic campaign must include a strong mobile element – brands simply cannot afford to ignore the areas where their audiences are paying increasing amounts of attention. This attention is now split across multiple screens and a single programmatic campaign can target and optimize against desired audiences in a holistic and unified fashion.
Advertising expenditure on TV is expected to reach £5.0bn for the first time in 2014, according to the latest data from the Advertising Association/Warc Expenditure Report. Our annual forecast for the TV ad sector – including spot, sponsorship and broadcaster VOD – has been raised to 7.8% growth for the year, taking total spend to £5,003m. We anticipate further growth of 6.6% in 2015, equating to spend of £5,335m.
This uplift in the forecast stems from better than anticipated growth for TV spot advertising expenditure. Spot adspend had a very strong Q2 2014, rising 10.7% compared with the same period in 2013 to £1,118m. The sector benefited from the football World Cup and slightly outperformed our previous July forecast (+10.5%).
Advertising expenditure in magazine brands dipped 6.7% year-on-year in Q2 2014 to £254m, according to the latest data from the Advertising Association/Warc Expenditure Report. This is the 35th consecutive quarter of decline for the sector, with growth last recorded in Q2 2005. But, according to the latest forecast, adspend growth should finally return for magazine brands – including both print and digital platforms – this time next year.
Of the print media, it is magazine brands (alongside the regional press) which have fared worst as spend has shifted online. Looking at the chart below, we can see that from a peak in 2000, print advertising in magazines has more than halved, dropping from £2,020m to just £786m in 2013.
Adspend in regional newsbrands performed ahead of expectations in Q2 2014, according to the latest data from the Advertising Association/Warc Expenditure Report. Even so, newsbrands – inclusive of both print and digital newspaper platforms – still recorded a decline of 1.7% compared with the same period in 2013, despite a 27.9% increase for their digital revenues (to £44m). While growth for digital has gained significant pace in the last three quarters, it has still not been enough to offset the decline in print adspend (this dropped 5.2% to £280m in the latest quarter). But could the regional newsbrands be on the cusp of growth after a difficult decade?
The regional newsbrands sector has witnessed a dramatic shift in fortunes in recent years, as spend has shifted online. Back in 1982, when Warc first started collected quarterly advertising spend data on behalf of the Advertising Association, spend in regional newsbrands accounted for 23% of total UK adspend. By the end of this year, we expect this to have dipped to just 6.6%.
When has a week gone by for you when you haven’t shopped on line for a brand? For most of us in our team at least, shopping online or using mobile during the shopping experience has become a habit.
From Showrooming (looking at products in store and buying on line), to Webrooming (looking at products on line and then buying in store) to Boomerooming (researching on line, seeing and touching the product in store and then buying on line) we are changing our shopping habits and the implications for retailers and brands is profound.
Yesterday, we published a new long-term trend analysis: Global Ad Trends, a summary report which draws upon the data stored in our adspend database.
To provide some background, Warc has conducted an annual survey of global advertising expenditure since 1980, issuing questionnaires to monitoring organisations and/or ad industry bodies in each of the 88 markets we track. The survey covers TV, newspapers, magazines, internet, radio, cinema and out of home adspend. You can find a full list of our coverage here.
Once all markets are in, we harmonise the data (net of discounts, including press classified adspend and agency commission but excluding production costs) to give a more accurate, comparable picture of each country's ad market. This then allows us to identify meaningful trends in long-term advertising expenditure.
Earlier in this series we introduced our point of view on how organisations need to evolve their communications capabilities to deliver growth through a meaningful, mutually beneficial customer experience and 4 key principles for customer engagement:
In this final instalment, we will look at the role of content and how to continually measure and evolve your customer engagement.
In the first of this three-part series, we introduced our point of view on how organisations need to evolve their communications and capabilities to deliver growth through a meaningful customer experience, and 4 key principles for customer engagement:
This week we will look in more detail at the need for engagement to be mutually beneficial and the role of the customer.
This post by Jane Bainbridge originally appeared on Research Live.
The internet of things (IoT) could open up the direct monetisation of data between individuals and brands according to Moeen Khawaja, partner of Umbrellium.
Speaking at today’s Market Research Society conference, Connected World, and introducing his company’s IoT search engine, thingful, Khawaja pointed to forecasts that within the next 15 years there will be between 10 and 26 connected objects per person.