The Warc Blog

The Warc Blog

This Year, Next Year UK forecast
 
Posted by: MEC
 
MEC

This post by GroupM's Adam Smith summarises the latest forecasts for 2015 ad expenditure in the UK and how they will impact on media categories.

The UK economy is in strong, but vulnerable, recovery. Our trade deficit is a symptom. its run-rate of 5% of GDP is the highest it has ever been in peacetime. This is not healthy. It suggests under investment in domestic production (guilty), excess borrowing to consume (guilty), and, in particular, excess borrowing from foreigners (which can dry up without warning, especially with the Fed calling its dollars home).

Another symptom is relying on consumers to save less rather than earning more. Takehome pay has risen 8% since 2008; CPI, 20%. Falling oil and supermarket prices will increase real spending power temporarily. Lasting improvement requires better productivity, which requires corporate investment, which requires a degree of confidence about the future which UK Plc may lack. For these ad forecasts, the short-term looks more attractive than the long-term. The advertising recovery peaked in 2013. And even the short-term comes with a government health warning. Low wage growth brought a tax shortfall, so the government is not finished with austerity yet. We will hear more about this after the election. The 11% (of GDP) annual budget deficit the coalition inherited in 2010 is still running at 5%-6% (same as Spain, worse than Italy) and the pile of accumulated public debt has doubled, to £1.5 trillion (nearly 90% of annual GDP).

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Subjects: Data

30 January 2015 17:03

Consumables to attract most adspend in 2015
 
Posted by: James McDonald, Research Analyst, Warc
 
James McDonald

The consumables sector is set to account for the greatest category share of UK advertising spend in 2015, according to the latest data from the AA/Warc Expenditure Report. The sector – comprising cosmetics & toiletries, food, drink, household FMCG, pharmaceuticals and tobacco – should take around 23% of total adspend, with ad revenues in excess of £2.4bn. This follows anticipated growth of 1.5% for the category in 2015, following a rise of 0.6% last year.

The category data included within the Expenditure Report is sourced from Nielsen, the market research firm. The 26 major product categories measured by Nielsen – Nielsen's data collection methodology is detailed here – are grouped into seven major sectors by the Advertising Association and Warc, according to the table below.


(Click image to enlarge)

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Subjects: Data

29 January 2015 15:57

Lessons from Mumbai MEDIAFORUM
 
Posted by: Guest blog
 
Guest blog

This post is by Matt Green, senior marketing communications manager at the WFA.

The first meeting of the WFA's MEDIAFORUM in India is the perfect time to reflect on what we can learn from this fast growing market.

India is a country of big numbers. Media investment is estimated at $7.2bn a year and growth in the past seven years has been a staggering 101%. It has risen from being the world's 20th largest media market in 2007 to No. 14 today.

But despite these huge numbers, the most interesting one for me is the growth potential. With 1.2bn people, marketing spend per person is just $6 a year, one of the lowest levels in the world.

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Subjects: Marketing

28 January 2015 10:52

The Power of Partnerships
 
Posted by: Lena Roland, Knowledge Officer, Warc
 
Lena Roland

As Warc’s Knowledge Officer I’ve observed some notable trends that stood out in the marcomms industry in 2014 and that will continue to play an important role in brand communications in 2015. I’ll be publishing a series of blogs covering these hot topics over the next few weeks. The first looks at powerful partnerships.

Partnerships are hot! The right collaboration can have a powerful effect on marketing strategy. Aligning with experts can enhance a brand's credibility; the right collaboration can expose a brand to new audiences; what's more, a clever partnership can support that all-important shopper-marketing strategy.

I've dug deep into the Warc archive to showcase a selection of case studies from 2014 that have implemented such strategies to great effect.

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Subjects: Marketing, Advertising, Brands

27 January 2015 10:41

Recruitment advertising: On the up
 
Posted by: James McDonald, Research Analyst, Warc
 
James McDonald

UK recruitment adspend has now shown year-on-year growth in the last four quarters, and is expected to post continuous growth throughout the forecast period to end-Q3 2016, according to the latest data from the Advertising Association/Warc Expenditure Report.

The Report estimates annual growth in recruitment adspend of 3.9% last year, with total spend of approximately £528m, while a further increase – of 4.8% – is forecast this year. Prior to the last four quarters of growth, the sector had registered a decline in 21 of the previous 23 quarters.


(Click image to enlarge)

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Subjects: Data

26 January 2015 09:36

A record year for UK adspend: Where's the money going?
 
Posted by: James McDonald, Research Analyst, Warc
 
James McDonald

UK advertising expenditure is forecast to total £19.6bn in 2015, according to the latest data from the Advertising Association/Warc Expenditure Report, released this week. This is comfortably the largest total ever recorded, and represents a 5.7% annual increase from 2014. Receipts for 2014 are expected to total approximately £18.5bn, following growth of 5.8% from 2013. These rises also represent the best consecutive growth period since the millennium.

The largest medium for adspend – since surpassing TV in 2011 – is internet, with pure play digital revenues of £7.0bn forecast this year. The pure play figure excludes digital revenues from magazines and newsbrands as well as those from broadcaster VoD, however it does include mobile revenues, which have risen significantly over the last five years.

In 2015, one in every three pounds spent on internet advertising will be specifically for mobile, up from 1/20 in 2011. Furthermore, annual mobile display and search revenues are each expected to surpass £1bn for the first time this year.

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Subjects: Data, Advertising

23 January 2015 09:31

Don't interrupt people, involve them: Why marketing needs to become more democratic
 
Posted by: Guest blog
 
Guest blog

This post is part of the WFA's Project Reconnect, and is written by Simon Kemp, Regional Managing Partner for We Are Social in Asia

The more people are involved in something, the more they engage with it.

This is true in marketing too, and the organisations that succeed in actively involving their audiences and consumers in the creation and development of their brands are best placed to succeed in the long term.

It's perhaps little surprise, then, that 'participation' was one of the 'New 4Ps' that we discovered in our recent research for Project Reconnect (the other Ps were People, Purpose, and Principles).

So what does Participation mean for your brand?

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Subjects: Marketing, Consumers

22 January 2015 16:42

IJMR Landmark Paper: ‘Messages from the spiral of silence’
 
Posted by: Peter Mouncey, Editor-In-Chief, IJMR
 
Peter Mouncey

As we enter 2015, electioneering in the UK has already started, up front of May's general election. Is this going to be a difficult time for the pollsters, especially following on from their perceived performance in predicting the outcome of last September's referendum in Scotland on independence?

All the signs point to a complex situation, with the possible annihilation of the Liberals; the rise of UKIP; the increasing support for the SNP in Scotland, possibly causing Labour a lot of grief; the role of the Green vote. Forecasting the likely outcome looks to be more problematic than has been the case for many years.

One issue that was discussed in the context of the polls conducted leading up to the referendum vote in Scotland last autumn was the impact of the 'spiral of silence' which may have contributed towards the 'no' vote having been understated in the polls. So, what exactly is the 'spiral of silence' effect, and are there ways in which pollsters can try to account for its influence when predicting voting intentions?

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Subjects: Consumers, Data

21 January 2015 12:03

Sex, Lies and Survey Data
 
Posted by: Guest blog
 
Guest blog

This post is by Richard Shotton, Head of Insight at ZenithOptimedia.

Much of advertising research is based on listening to what consumers say and then adapting campaigns accordingly. It seems a logical enough approach. However, it's based on the premise that what consumers say and what they do are aligned. Unfortunately there's a growing body of evidence that shows that the two things are often at odds.

Take sex. When heterosexual men and women are asked about the number of partners they have slept with the numbers vary dramatically. A 2013 Lancet study of 15,000 adults found that UK women admit to sleeping with an average of eight partners compared to twelve for men. The scale of the difference is not logically consistent. The most plausible explanation is that men feel a cultural pressure to exaggerate their exploits whilst women feel a corresponding pressure to play it down. Surveys, therefore, tell us more about what people feel they should say than the absolute truth.

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Subjects: Consumers, Data

21 January 2015 10:36

The smart outdoors: Why Digital Out of Home is the space to watch in 2015
 
Posted by: Guest blog
 
Guest blog

This post is by Sarah Villegas, Exterion Media's Head of Marketing and Business Development.

The potential for Digital Out of Home advertising (DOOH) is huge and there is unanimous agreement across the industry that its adoption is at a tipping point. Nearly a quarter of Outdoor spend is now digital1. The total inventory of DOOH sites in the UK is set to grow more than 40 percent between now and 2020, according to Kinetic Worldwide. The same study says that, while digital already accounts for around 22 percent of the outdoor market's annual £1bn sales, by 2020 that proportion will rise to 35 percent. In fact, one in every three pounds in OOH will be on digital in 2015 according to Posterscope.

Why? Because digital is no longer just a luminescent board attached to a landmark. The outdoor world is getting smarter and more engaging. Forbes journalist Glen Martin sums it up neatly: "the urban environment is evolving rapidly, and a model is emerging that is more efficient, more functional, more – connected."

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Subjects: Media, Digital, Advertising

20 January 2015 12:53

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